Today should be relatively quiet, with no major news or central bank meetings expected.

Bank of England dissents surprise markets

The Bank of England meeting delivered a hawkish surprise. There are now three members out of eight that believe an immediate hike is needed to counteract the inflationary impact of the post-Brexit devaluation of the Pound. The recent increase to 2.9%, significantly above the BoE’s 2% target, has apparently set off alarm bells.

The gap between the MPC split and the market’s complacency about higher rates in the UK is remarkable. Rate traders continue to price in no hikes until 2019.

Second-tier data in US remain upbeat

Weekly jobless claims is perhaps the most valuable short-term indicator of the state of the US economy. It continues to bounce around multi-decade lows, in a sign that the US is nowhere near a recession and that the current moderate expansion still has room to run. Traders were clearly caught wrong footed by Yellen’s hawkishness and continued to square positions and clear Euro longs, pushing the common currency downwards throughout London’s trading session yesterday.